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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."