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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.